Actualizado 02 Nov 2024 18:14

Elecciones 23 de julio

Política | Actualidad
MACROENCUESTA ELECTORAL DEL CIS

Cómo van los partidos en la encuesta del CIS: el PSOE llegaría hasta 150 escaños

El PSOE conseguiría entre 133 y 150 escaños, el PP, entre 74 y 81, Ciudadanos, entre 27 y 35, Unidas Podemos, entre 27 y 33, Vox, entre 14 y 21 y Más País, entre 3 y 4

El trabajo de campo de esta encuesta finalizó el día antes de la publicación de la sentencia del procés

Redacción

29/10/2019 - 12:57 UTC

Madrid

La encuesta electoral del Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) con vistas a los comicios del próximo 10 de noviembre da la victoria al PSOE con un respaldo estimado del 32,2% y entre 133 y 150 escaños, muy por encima de su resultado de abril, en el que consiguió 123 asientos.

El PP, alejado del PSOE; Podemos, igual, y Cs se descalabra

Más información

En segunda posición figura el PP con el 18,1% y entre 74 y 81 escaños, también por encima de sus datos de las anteriores elecciones. La coalición Unidas Podemos se quedaría en una posición similar con el 14,6% y entre 37 y 45 escaños, mientras que Ciudadanos se queda en el 10,6% y entre 27 y 35 diputados.

Vox, en quinta posición y perdiendo votos

Por último Vox se queda en el 7,9% y entre 14 y 21 escaños, por debajo de lo cosechado en abril. Más País, el nuevo partido de Íñigo Errejón, entraría con el 2,9% y conseguiría entre 3 y 4 escaños entre los que logra en Madrid y los que suma con Més Compromís en la Comunidad Valenciana. 

Elecciones de abril de 2019 (escaños)
Encuesta del CIS de octubre para el 10-N (escaños)
PSOE123133-150
PP6674-81
Podemos3537-45
Ciudadanos5727-33
Vox2414-21
ERC1516-18
EAJ-PNV66-7
EH-Bildu45
JuntsxCat74-6
Más PaísNo se presentó3-4
CUPNo se presentó1-2

Los votos a los partidos independentistas antes de conocer la sentencia

La encuesta se basa en alrededor de 17.650 entrevistas personales realizadas en 1.091 municipios de las 50 provincias en las primeras semanas del mes de octubre, antes de hacerse pública la sentencia del procés.  En esta coyuntura, ERC ganaría algún escaño, pasando de los 15 de abril a una horquilla entre los 16 y los 18. JxCat también ganaría votos y conseguiría de 4 a 6 asientos en el Congreso. La CUP se presenta por primera vez a las generales y, según el CIS, uno o dos representantes del partido entrarían en el Hemiciclo.

PNV y Bildu se mantienen

Los partidos nacionalistas vascos se obtendrían resultados muy similares respecto a las pasadas elecciones, según esta encuesta. En abril, el EAJ-PNV ganó en Euskadi y consiguió 6 escaños y EH-Bildu logró 4 escaños, por lo que el CIS le augura al PNV una subida que le podría dar un representante más (6-7) y EH-Bildu subiría un escaño, hasta los 5. 

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encuesta electoral del <a title=\"CIS\" href=\"https://cadenaser.com/tag/cis_centro_investigaciones_sociologicas/a/\">Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas</a> (CIS) con vistas a los<a title=\"Elecciones Generales 10-N 2019\" href=\"https://cadenaser.com/tag/elecciones_generales_10_noviembre_2019/a/\"> comicios del próximo 10 de noviembre</a> da la victoria al <a title=\"PSOE\" href=\"https://cadenaser.com/tag/psoe_partido_socialista_obrero_espanol/a/\">PSOE</a> con un respaldo estimado del 32,2% y entre <strong>133 y 150 escaños</strong>, muy por encima de su resultado de abril, <a title=\"Resultados electoral de abril de 2019\" href=\"https://cadenaser.com/ser/2019/04/28/politica/1556433814_123245.html\"><strong>en el que consiguió 123 asientos.</strong></a>"},{"_id":"XPAFLMDTVNBXPG2Q4XW2XO2RJA","type":"header","level":4,"additional_properties":{"tag":"subladillo"},"alignment":"center","content":"El PP, alejado del PSOE; Podemos, igual, y Cs se descalabra<strong><br 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title=\"Íñigo Errejón\" href=\"https://cadenaser.com/tag/inigo_errejon_galvan/a/\">Íñigo Errejón</a>, entraría con el 2,9% y conseguiría entre 3 y 4 escaños entre los que logra en Madrid y los que suma con Més Compromís en la Comunidad Valenciana. "},{"_id":"Y7AF5NNVJVEVFCHFWAVOV2Y6QI","type":"table","header":[],"additional_properties":{"comments":[]},"rows":[[{"content":"","type":"text"},{"content":"<strong>Elecciones de abril de 2019 (escaños)<br /></strong>","type":"text"},{"content":"<strong>Encuesta del CIS de octubre para el 10-N (escaños)<br 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País</strong>","type":"text"},{"content":"No se presentó","type":"text"},{"content":"3-4","type":"text"}],[{"content":"<strong>CUP</strong>","type":"text"},{"content":"No se presentó","type":"text"},{"content":"1-2","type":"text"}]]},{"_id":"QZQ6U3LJYBB3HNSGOAMCJL2OV4","type":"header","level":4,"additional_properties":{"tag":"subladillo"},"alignment":"center","content":"Los votos a los partidos independentistas antes de conocer la sentencia"},{"_id":"RPAPHZT2HRCB7J3SFMJQ6JJHCA","type":"text","additional_properties":{"tag":"p"},"alignment":"center","content":"La encuesta se basa en alrededor de 17.650 entrevistas personales realizadas en 1.091 municipios de las 50 provincias en las primeras semanas del mes de octubre, <a title=\"Sentencia Procés\" href=\"https://cadenaser.com/tag/sentencia_juicio_proces/a/\">antes de hacerse pública la sentencia del procés.</a>  En esta coyuntura, <strong><a title=\"ERC\" href=\"https://cadenaser.com/tag/erc_esquerra_republicana_catalunya/a/\">ERC</a> 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